Prognostication for recurrence patterns after curative resection for pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma

This study aimed to investigate patterns and factors affecting recurrence after curative resection for pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC).

Consecutive patients who underwent curative resection for PDAC (2011-21) and consented to data and tissue collection (Barts Pancreas Tissue Bank) were followed up until May 2023. Clinico-pathological variables were analysed using Cox proportional hazards model.

Of 91 people (42 males [46%]; median age, 71 years [range, 43-86 years]) with a median follow-up of 51 months (95% confidence intervals [CIs], 40-61 months), the recurrence rate was 72.5% (n = 66; 12 loco-regional alone, 11 liver alone, 5 lung alone, 3 peritoneal alone, 29 simultaneous loco-regional and distant metastases, and 6 multi-focal distant metastases at first recurrence diagnosis). The median time to recurrence was 8.5 months (95% CI, 6.6-10.5 months). Median survival after recurrence was 5.8 months (95% CI, 4.2-7.3 months). Stratification by recurrence location revealed significant differences in time to recurrence between loco-regional only recurrence (median, 13.6 months; 95% CI, 11.7-15.5 months) and simultaneous loco-regional with distant recurrence (median, 7.5 months; 95% CI, 4.6-10.4 months; p = 0.02, pairwise log-rank test). Significant predictors for recurrence were systemic inflammation index (SII) ≥ 500 (hazard ratio [HR], 4.5; 95% CI, 1.4-14.3), lymph node ratio ≥ 0.33 (HR, 2.8; 95% CI, 1.4-5.8), and adjuvant chemotherapy (HR, 0.4; 95% CI, 0.2-0.7).

Timing to loco-regional only recurrence was significantly longer than simultaneous loco-regional with distant recurrence. Significant predictors for recurrence were SII, lymph node ration, and adjuvant chemotherapy.