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Related Experiment Video

Updated: May 6, 2026

High-throughput Detection of Respiratory Pathogens in Animal Specimens by Nanoscale PCR
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Using serosurveys to optimize surveillance for zoonotic pathogens.

E Clancey1, S L Nuismer2, S N Seifert1

  • 1Paul G. Allen School for Global Health, Washington State University, Pullman, WA 99164 USA.

Biorxiv : the Preprint Server for Biology
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Identifying animal reservoirs for zoonotic pathogens is crucial. This study presents a model using serosurveillance data to predict peak pathogen prevalence, optimizing field sampling for elusive viruses like Ebolavirus.

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Area of Science:

  • Epidemiology
  • Wildlife Health
  • Disease Ecology

Background:

  • Zoonotic pathogens pose significant global health risks, causing diseases, epidemics, and pandemics.
  • Identifying animal reservoirs for zoonotic pathogens is challenging, especially when pathogen prevalence is seasonal.
  • Effective surveillance requires optimized field sampling strategies.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To develop a general statistical model for predicting peak pathogen prevalence in animal populations.
  • To optimize field sampling efforts for detecting elusive zoonotic pathogens.
  • To guide future surveillance and potentially predict spillover events.

Main Methods:

  • Developed a general statistical model leveraging routine serosurveillance data.
  • Validated the model using simulated datasets to assess its reliability in predicting peak prevalence.
  • Applied the model to publicly available serosurveillance data from Ebolavirus reservoir bat species (Eidolon helvum and Hypsignathus monstrosus).

Main Results:

  • The developed methodology reliably identifies time windows of expected peak pathogen prevalence.
  • The model successfully predicted peak prevalence periods using simulated and real-world bat serosurveillance data.
  • Demonstrated the model's applicability to Ebolavirus reservoirs.

Conclusions:

  • The model provides a broadly applicable and simple method for optimizing field sampling for elusive pathogens.
  • Predicting seasonal peaks in prevalence can enhance the detection of active infections in reservoir species.
  • The methodology can inform strategies to mitigate zoonotic disease risks and potentially forecast spillover events.