Prediction of microbial activity and abundance using interpretable machine learning models in the hyporheic zone of...

Serving as a vital linkage between surface water and groundwater, the hyporheic zone (HZ) plays a fundamental role in improving water quality and maintaining ecological security. In arid or semi-arid areas, effluent discharge from wastewater treatment facilities could occupy a predominant proportion of the total base flow of receiving rivers. Nonetheless the relationship between microbial activity, abundance and environmental factors in the HZ of effluent-receiving rivers appear to be rarely addressed. In this study, a spatiotemporal field study was performed in two representative effluent-dominated receiving rivers in Xi'an, China. Land use data, physical and chemical water quality parameters of surface and subsurface water were used as predictive variables, while the microbial respiratory electron transport system activity (ETSA), the Chao1 and Shannon index of total microbial community, as well as the Chao1 and Shannon index of denitrifying bacteria community were used as response variables, while ETSA was used as response variables indicating ecological processes and Shannon and Chao1 were utilized as parameters indicating microbial diversity. Two machine learning models were utilized to provide evidence-based information on how environmental factors interact and drive microbial activity and abundance in the HZ at variable depths. The models with Chao1 and Shannon as response variables exhibited excellent predictive performances (R²: 0.754-0.81 and 0.783-0.839). Dissolved organic nitrogen (DON) was the most important factor affecting the microbial functions, and an obvious threshold value of ∼2 mg/L was observed. Credible predictions of models with Chao1 and Shannon index of denitrifying bacteria community as response variables were detected (R²: 0.484-0.624 and 0.567-0.638), with soluble reactive phosphorus (SRP) being the key influencing factor. Fe (Ⅱ) was favorable in predicting denitrifying bacteria community. The ESTA model highlighted the importance of total nitrogen in the ecological health monitoring in HZ. These findings provide novel insights in predicting microbial activity and abundance in highly-impacted areas such as the HZ of effluent-dominated receiving rivers.