Drivers of natural gas use in U.S. residential buildings

Natural gas is the primary fuel used in U.S. residences, yet little is known about its consumption patterns and drivers. We use daily county-level gas consumption data to assess the spatial patterns of the relationships and the sensitivities of gas consumption to outdoor air temperature across U.S. households. We fitted linear-plus-plateau functions to daily gas consumption data in 1000 counties, and derived two key coefficients: the heating temperature threshold (T_crit) and the gas consumption rate change per 1°C temperature drop (Slope). We identified the main predictors of T_crit and Slope (like income, employment rate, and building type) using interpretable machine learning models built on census data. Finally, we estimated a potential 2.47 million MtCO₂ annual emission reduction in U.S. residences by gas savings due to household insulation improvements and hypothetical behavioral change toward reduced consumption by adopting a 1°C lower T_crit than the current value.