PBPK-PD model for predicting morphine pharmacokinetics, CNS effects and naloxone antagonism in humans

Morphine and morphine-6-glucuronide (M6G) produce central nervous system (CNS) effects by activating mu-opioid receptors, while naloxone is used mainly for the reversal of opioid overdose, specifically for the fatal complication of respiratory depression, but also for alleviating opioid-induced side effects. In this study we developed a physiologically-based pharmacokinetic-pharmacodynamic (PBPK-PD) model to simultaneously predict pharmacokinetics and CNS effects (miosis, respiratory depression and analgesia) of morphine as well as antagonistic effects of naloxone against morphine. The pharmacokinetic and pharmacodynamic parameters were obtained from in vitro data, in silico, or animals. Pharmacokinetic and pharmacodynamic simulations were conducted using 39 and 36 clinical reports, respectively. The pharmacokinetics of morphine and M6G following oral or intravenous administration were simulated, and the PBPK-PD model was validated using clinical observations. The E_max model correlated CNS effects with free concentrations of morphine and M6G in brain parenchyma. The predicted CNS effects were compared with observations. Most clinical observations fell within the 5th-95th percentiles of simulations based on 1000 virtual individuals. Most of the simulated area under the concentration-time curve or peak concentrations also fell within 0.5-2-fold of observations. The contribution of morphine to CNS effects following intravenous or oral administration was larger than that of M6G. Pharmacokinetics and antagonistic effects of naloxone on CNS effects were also successfully predicted using the developed PBPK-PD model. In conclusion, the pharmacokinetics and pharmacodynamics of morphine and M6G, antagonistic effects of naloxone against morphine-induced CNS effects may be successfully predicted using the developed PBPK-PD model based on the parameters derived from in vitro, in silico, or animal studies.