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Assessing scale-dependency of climate risks in coffee-based agroforestry systems.

Vivekananda M Byrareddy1,2, Jarrod Kath1,3, Louis Kouadio4

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Area of Science:

  • Agricultural Science
  • Climate Science
  • Ecology

Background:

  • Agroforestry systems are crucial for climate change adaptation and mitigation in sustainable agriculture.
  • Assessing climate risks is vital for successful agroforestry implementation, but spatial scale impacts are often overlooked.
  • Understanding these scale-dependent impacts is essential for developing resilient farming strategies.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To investigate the impact of climate risks on robusta coffee production within coffee-based agroforestry systems across India.
  • To analyze how these impacts vary across different spatial scales (district vs. regional).
  • To project future climate impacts on coffee yield under a 2°C global warming scenario.

Main Methods:

  • Collected data from 314 robusta coffee farms across Karnataka and Kerala states (2015-2018).
  • Quantified key climate drivers affecting coffee yield using farm-level data.
  • Utilized projected climate data for baseline (1985-2015) and a 2°C warming scenario to model yield changes.

Main Results:

  • Rainfall variability was the primary constraint on coffee productivity at the district scale.
  • Maximum temperature emerged as the most significant factor influencing yield at the regional scale.
  • Projected 2°C warming showed scale-dependent effects: modest yield increases (up to 5%) at district scale, but significant reductions (10-20%) at regional scale.

Conclusions:

  • Climate risk impacts on coffee yield are scale-dependent, necessitating tailored agroforestry strategies.
  • Regional-scale climate models indicate potential yield losses under future warming scenarios.
  • Developing adaptive agroforestry strategies that consider diverse spatial scales is critical for ensuring coffee production resilience.