A novel scoring system for early prediction of massive transfusion requirement in trauma patients

Early resuscitation using blood products is critical for patients with severe hemorrhagic shock. We aimed to develop and validate a new scoring system, hemorrhagic shock transfusion prediction (HSTP) score, to predict the need for massive transfusion (MT) in these patients, compared to the widely used Assessment of Blood Consumption (ABC) score. Trauma patients admitted to Emtiaz Hospital in Iran from 2017 to 2021 were retrospectively included. Patients assigned a code 1 or 2 according to the Emergency severity index (ESI) triage system have been divided into MT and non-MT groups. MT was defined as receiving ≥ 10 units of packed cells (PCs) in 24 h. Demographic information, admission vital signs, and lab results available within 15 min were compared between the groups. A new predictive score was developed using logistic regression of statistically significant parameters. Out of 1029 patients, 651 (63.3%) required MT. An arrival, diastolic blood pressure < 79.5 mm Hg, absolute lymphocyte count > 1850/μL, base excess < - 4.25, and blood glucose > 156 mg/dL were independent predictors included in the HSTP score. The sensitivity and specificity were 74.36% and 53.87% for the HSTP score, compared to 31.03% and 76.16% for the ABC score. Moreover, the positive and negative predictive values were 77.88% and 49.03% for the HSTP score, versus 74.15% and 33.66% for ABC. The new scoring system demonstrated higher sensitivity and improved positive and negative predictive values compared to the ABC score. This score can assist physicians in making accurate transfusion decisions quickly, but further prospective studies are warranted to validate its clinical utility.