Genetic predisposition for negative affect predicts mental health burden during the COVID-19 pandemic

The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic was accompanied by an increase in mental health challenges including depression, stress, loneliness, and anxiety. Common genetic variants can contribute to the risk for psychiatric disorders and may present a risk factor in times of crises. However, it is unclear to what extent polygenic risk played a role in the mental health response to the COVID-19 pandemic. In this study, we investigate whether polygenic scores (PGSs) for mental health-related traits can distinguish between four resilience-vulnerability trajectories identified during the COVID-19 pandemic and associated lockdowns in 2020/21. We used multinomial regression in a genotyped subsample (n = 1316) of the CovSocial project. The most resilient trajectory characterized by the lowest mental health burden and the highest recovery rates served as the reference group. Compared to this most resilient trajectory, a higher value on the PGS for the well-being spectrum decreased the odds for individuals to be in one of the more vulnerable trajectories (adjusted R-square = 0.3%). Conversely, a higher value on the PGS for neuroticism increased the odds for individuals to be in one of the more vulnerable trajectories (adjusted R-square = 0.2%). Latent change in mental health burden extracted from the resilience-vulnerability trajectories was not associated with any PGS. Although our findings support an influence of PGS on mental health during COVID-19, the small added explained variance suggests limited utility of such genetic markers for the identification of vulnerable individuals in the general population.