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Published on: February 28, 2021
Fractional epidemic model of coronavirus disease with vaccination and crowding effects
Suhail Saleem1, Muhammad Rafiq2,3, Nauman Ahmed4,3
1Department of Mathematics, Air University, PAF Complex E-9, Islamabad, 44000, Pakistan.
Insights
This study introduces a fractional order epidemic model for COVID-19, incorporating crowding and vaccination. The model demonstrates that control strategies effectively reduce infections and increase recovery rates.
Area of Science:
- Epidemiology
- Mathematical Biology
- Infectious Disease Modeling
Background:
- The COVID-19 pandemic poses a global health crisis, with transmission significantly influenced by population density and vaccination efforts.
- Understanding the dynamics of coronavirus spread is crucial for developing effective control strategies.
Purpose of the Study:
- To propose and analyze a fractional order Susceptible-Infected-Vaccinated-Recovered (SIVR) epidemic model for COVID-19.
- To investigate the impact of crowding and vaccination on disease transmission dynamics.
- To ensure the mathematical validity and stability of the proposed fractional model.
Main Methods:
- Development of a fractional order SIVR model incorporating nonlinear incidence rates, crowding, and vaccination.
- Analytical determination of equilibrium points and application of fixed-point theory for existence and uniqueness.
- Stability analysis using Jacobian matrices, Routh-Hurwitz criterion, and Lyapunov functions.
- Calculation of the basic reproductive number using the next-generation matrix.
- Development and application of a non-standard finite difference (NSFD) scheme for numerical simulations.
Main Results:
- The model establishes conditions for the local and global asymptotic stability of disease-free and endemic equilibrium points.
- The basic reproductive number (R0) is calculated, with stability contingent on its value relative to 1.
- The NSFD scheme is proven to preserve the positivity and boundedness properties of the model solutions.
- Simulations demonstrate that control strategies reduce infected populations and increase recovered populations.
- The influence of the fractional order parameter on virus transmission is graphically analyzed.
Conclusions:
- The fractional order SIVR model provides valuable insights into COVID-19 transmission dynamics, highlighting the importance of crowding and vaccination.
- The proposed NSFD scheme offers a reliable numerical method for solving fractional epidemic models.
- Control strategies are effective in mitigating the spread of the virus and improving recovery rates.
- This research contributes to the understanding and prediction of future virus transmission trends.
Abstract:
Most of the countries in the world are affected by the coronavirus epidemic that put people in danger, with many infected cases and deaths. The crowding factor plays a significant role in the transmission of coronavirus disease. On the other hand, the vaccines of the covid-19 played a decisive role in the control of coronavirus infection. In this paper, a fractional order epidemic model (SIVR) of coronavirus disease is proposed by considering the effects of crowding and vaccination because the transmission of this infection is highly influenced by these two factors. The nonlinear incidence rate with the inclusion of these effects is a better approach to understand and analyse the dynamics of the model. The positivity and boundedness of the fractional order model is ensured by applying some standard results of Mittag Leffler function and Laplace transformation. The equilibrium points are described analytically. The existence and uniqueness of the non-integer order model is also confirmed by using results of the fixed-point theory. Stability analysis is carried out for the system at both the steady states by using Jacobian matrix theory, Routh-Hurwitz criterion and Volterra-type Lyapunov functions. Basic reproductive number is calculated by using next generation matrix. It is verified that disease-free equilibrium is locally asymptotically stable if and endemic equilibrium is locally asymptotically stable if . Moreover, the disease-free equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable if and endemic equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable if . The non-standard finite difference (NSFD) scheme is developed to approximate the solutions of the system. The simulated graphs are presented to show the key features of the NSFD approach. It is proved that non-standard finite difference approach preserves the positivity and boundedness properties of model. The simulated graphs show that the implementation of control strategies reduced the infected population and increase the recovered population. The impact of fractional order parameter is described by the graphical templates. The future trends of the virus transmission are predicted under some control measures. The current work will be a value addition in the literature. The article is closed by some useful concluding remarks.
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