Fractional epidemic model of coronavirus disease with vaccination and crowding effects

Suhail Saleem1, Muhammad Rafiq2,3, Nauman Ahmed4,3

  • 1Department of Mathematics, Air University, PAF Complex E-9, Islamabad, 44000, Pakistan.

Scientific Reports
|April 8, 2024
PubMed

Insights

This study introduces a fractional order epidemic model for COVID-19, incorporating crowding and vaccination. The model demonstrates that control strategies effectively reduce infections and increase recovery rates.

Area of Science:

  • Epidemiology
  • Mathematical Biology
  • Infectious Disease Modeling

Background:

  • The COVID-19 pandemic poses a global health crisis, with transmission significantly influenced by population density and vaccination efforts.
  • Understanding the dynamics of coronavirus spread is crucial for developing effective control strategies.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To propose and analyze a fractional order Susceptible-Infected-Vaccinated-Recovered (SIVR) epidemic model for COVID-19.
  • To investigate the impact of crowding and vaccination on disease transmission dynamics.
  • To ensure the mathematical validity and stability of the proposed fractional model.

Main Methods:

  • Development of a fractional order SIVR model incorporating nonlinear incidence rates, crowding, and vaccination.
  • Analytical determination of equilibrium points and application of fixed-point theory for existence and uniqueness.
  • Stability analysis using Jacobian matrices, Routh-Hurwitz criterion, and Lyapunov functions.
  • Calculation of the basic reproductive number using the next-generation matrix.
  • Development and application of a non-standard finite difference (NSFD) scheme for numerical simulations.

Main Results:

  • The model establishes conditions for the local and global asymptotic stability of disease-free and endemic equilibrium points.
  • The basic reproductive number (R0) is calculated, with stability contingent on its value relative to 1.
  • The NSFD scheme is proven to preserve the positivity and boundedness properties of the model solutions.
  • Simulations demonstrate that control strategies reduce infected populations and increase recovered populations.
  • The influence of the fractional order parameter on virus transmission is graphically analyzed.

Conclusions:

  • The fractional order SIVR model provides valuable insights into COVID-19 transmission dynamics, highlighting the importance of crowding and vaccination.
  • The proposed NSFD scheme offers a reliable numerical method for solving fractional epidemic models.
  • Control strategies are effective in mitigating the spread of the virus and improving recovery rates.
  • This research contributes to the understanding and prediction of future virus transmission trends.

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