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Malaria risk mapping among children under five in Togo
Gountante Kombate1,2, Issouf Kone3, Bili Douti4
1Ministry of Health and Public Hygiene, Lomé, Togo. gountanto@gmail.com.
Scientific Reports
|April 8, 2024
Summary
Malaria incidence in Togo clusters spatially, driven by climate and environmental factors like temperature and rainfall. Identifying these hotspots aids targeted malaria control strategies for vulnerable populations.
Area of Science:
- Environmental Epidemiology
- Spatial Analysis
- Public Health
Background:
- Malaria poses a significant threat in sub-Saharan Africa, particularly to children under five.
- Malaria risk exhibits substantial spatial heterogeneity, linked to environmental and climatic variations.
Purpose of the Study:
- To investigate the spatial patterns of malaria incidence in Togo.
- To identify key environmental and climatic predictors associated with malaria risk.
Main Methods:
- Utilized data from the 2017 Malaria Indicator Survey in Togo.
- Employed Ordinary Least Squares (OLS), Spatial Lag Model (SLM), and Spatial Error Model (SEM) for analysis.
- Assessed associations between malaria incidence and geospatial covariates.
Main Results:
- Spatial autocorrelation analysis revealed significant malaria incidence clustering, not random distribution.
- Mean temperature, precipitation, aridity, and proximity to water bodies were directly associated with malaria rates.
- The Spatial Lag Model (SLM) provided the best fit for the data, identifying five distinct malaria incidence hotspots.
Conclusions:
- Malaria incidence in Togo is spatially clustered, influenced by climatic and environmental factors.
- Findings support the development of geographically tailored malaria control strategies.
- Targeting identified transmission hotspots can enhance malaria control efforts.
