Usefulness of Heart Failure Categories Based on Left Ventricular Ejection Fraction

Heart failure guidelines have recently introduced a narrow category with mildly reduced left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) (heart failure with mildly reduced ejection fraction; LVEF 41%-49%) between the previous categories of reduced (heart failure with reduced ejection fraction; LVEF ≤40%) and preserved (heart failure with preserved ejection fraction; LVEF ≥50%) ejection fraction. Grouping of continuous measurements into narrow categories can be questioned if their variability is high.

We constructed a cohort of all 9716 new cases of chronic heart failure with an available LVEF in Stockholm, Sweden, from January 1, 2015, until December 31, 2020. All values of LVEF were collected over time, and patients were followed up until death, moving out of Stockholm, or end of study. Mixed models were used to quantify within-person variance in LVEF, and multistate Markov models, with death as an absorbing state, to quantify the stability of LVEF categories. LVEF values followed a normal distribution. The SD of the within-person variance in LVEF over time was 7.4%. The mean time spent in any LVEF category before transition to another category was on average <1 year for heart failure with mildly reduced ejection fraction. Probabilities of transitioning between categories during the first year were substantial; patients with heart failure with mildly reduced ejection fraction had a probability of <25% of remaining in that category 1 year later.

LVEF follows a normal distribution and has considerable variability over time, which may impose a risk for underuse of efficient treatment. The heart failure with mildly reduced ejection fraction category is especially inconstant. Assumptions of a patient's current LVEF should take this variability and the normal distribution of LVEF into account.