Association between serum cytokines and timeframe for conversion from clinical high-risk to psychosis

Although many studies have explored the link between inflammatory markers and psychosis, there is a paucity of research investigating the temporal progression in individuals at clinical high-risk (CHR) who eventually develop full psychosis. To address this gap, we investigated the correlation between serum cytokine levels and Timeframe for Conversion to Psychosis (TCP) in individuals with CHR.

We enrolled 53 individuals with CHR who completed a 5-year follow-up with a confirmed conversion to psychosis. Granulocyte macrophage-colony stimulating factor (GM-CSF), interleukin (IL)-1β, 2, 6, 8, 10, tumor necrosis factor-α (TNF-α), and vascular endothelial growth factor (VEGF) levels were measured at baseline and 1-year. Correlation and quantile regression analyses were performed.

The median TCP duration was 14 months. A significantly shorter TCP was associated with higher levels of TNF-α (P = 0.022) and VEGF (P = 0.016). A negative correlation was observed between TCP and TNF-α level (P = 0.006) and VEGF level (P = 0.04). Quantile regression indicated negative associations between TCP and GM-CSF levels below the 0.5 quantile, IL-10 levels below the 0.3 quantile, IL-2 levels below the 0.25 quantile, IL-6 levels between the 0.65 and 0.75 quantiles, TNF-α levels below the 0.8 quantile, and VEGF levels below the 0.7 quantile. A mixed linear effects model identified significant time effects for IL-10 and IL-2, and significant group effects for changes in IL-2 and TNF-α.

Our findings underscore that a more pronounced baseline inflammatory state is associated with faster progression of psychosis in individuals with CHR. This highlights the importance of considering individual inflammatory profiles during early intervention and of tailoring preventive measures for risk profiles.