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Serum Lactate Is an Indicator for Short-Term and Long-Term Mortality in Patients with Acute Pancreatitis
Zhao Zeng1, Rong Huang1, Hang Lin1
1Department of Emergency Medicine, The Affiliated Changsha Central Hospital, Hengyang Medical School, University of South China, No. 161 Shaoshan South Road, Changsha, 410004, Hunan, China.
Background:
Serum lactate, as a single and an easily available biomarker, has been applied in various diseases.
Aims:
In this study, we aimed to explore the predictive value of serum lactate for short-term and long-term prognosis in acute pancreatitis (AP) admitted in intensive care unit (ICU) based on a large-scale database.
Methods:
AP patients admitted in ICU in the MIMIC-IV database were included. We constructed three different models to investigate the relationships between serum lactate and clinical outcomes, including 30-day, 180-day and 1-year mortality in AP. Smooth fitting curves were performed for intuitively demonstrating the relationship between serum lactate and different outcomes in AP by the generalized additive model.
Results:
A total of 895 AP patients admitted in ICU were included. The mortalities of 30 days, 180 days, and 1 year were 12.63% (n = 113), 16.87% (n = 151), and 17.54% (n = 157). In model B, with 1-mmol/L increment in serum lactate, the values of OR in 30-day, 180-day and 1-year mortality were 1.20 (95%CI 1.04-1.37, P = 0.0094), 1.21 (95%CI 1.06-1.37, P = 0.0039), and 1.21 (95%CI 1.07-1.38, P = 0.0035). The AUCs of serum lactate for predicting 30-day, 180-day, and 1-year mortality in AP were 0.688 (95%CI 0.633-0.743), 0.655 (95%CI 0.605-0.705), and 0.653 (95%CI 0.603-0.701), respectively. The cut-off value of serum lactate predicting 30-day, 180-day and 1-year mortality in AP was 2.4 mmol/L.
Conclusion:
Serum lactate could be an indicator for short-term and long-term mortality in patients with AP admitted in ICU.
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