Estimating deep soil water depletion and availability under planted forest on the Loess Plateau, China

Deep soil water (DSW) plays a pivotal role in tree growth, susceptibility to drought-induced mortality, and belowground carbon and nutrient cycling. Assessing DSW depletion is essential for evaluating the resilience and sustainability of planted forests. But, due to the poor accessibility of deep soil layers, little is known about large scale DSW depletion. In this study, we leverage the concept that "plants are reliable indicators of deep soil water" to estimate DSW depletion in planted forests within the arid and semi-arid regions of the Chinese Loess Plateau (CLP). Our approach involves establishing a model that correlates forest age with DSW depletion. We then employ this model to estimate DSW depletion across the region, utilizing readily available data on the distribution of forest age and utilize the boundary models to consider the variability of DSW depletion estimated with forest age. Our results indicate that the model effectively estimates DSW depletion in planted forests, demonstrating a strong fit with an R² of 0.71 and a low root mean square error (RMSE) of 332 mm. Notably, a substantial portion of the planted forest areas on the CLP has experienced DSW depletion from 800 mm to 1600 mm, and totaling 2.41 × 10¹⁰ m³ DSW depletion from 1995 to 2020 based on the general model. However, the available DSW in the existing planted forests on the CLP is estimated at only 1.73 × 10¹⁰ m³ by 2038. This suggests that there is potential risks and unsustainability for further afforestation efforts and carbon sequestration on the CLP under the current continuous afforestation measures. Our study holds significant implications for sustainable regional ecological management and quantifying water resources for carbon trading through afforestation.