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Interdependent network restoration games with incomplete information and bounded rationality.

Hesam Talebiyan1, Leonardo Duenas-Osorio2

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Summary

Cooperation in infrastructure restoration after disasters yields optimal outcomes, even without guaranteed mutual participation. Incentivizing collaboration is crucial for community resilience, especially with vital dominant infrastructure players.

Keywords:
Bayesian gamesbounded rationalitydecentralized decision makinginterdependent networksresiliencerestoration planning

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Area of Science:

  • Operations Research
  • Game Theory
  • Infrastructure Resilience

Background:

  • Disaster recovery planning requires effective infrastructure restoration strategies.
  • Decentralized decision-making by independent utility managers presents complex challenges.
  • Interdependent infrastructure systems amplify restoration difficulties.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To model strategic, decentralized restoration decisions in interdependent infrastructure using game theory.
  • To incorporate realistic factors like poor communication and behavioral biases into decision models.
  • To identify optimal strategies for enhancing community resilience post-disaster.

Main Methods:

  • Utilized simultaneous games to analyze conflicting preferences among decision-makers.
  • Employed Bayesian games to model incomplete information due to limited interagent communication.
  • Incorporated behavioral biases including bounded rationality and equality-driven resource allocation.
  • Tested models on synthetic and real-world (Shelby County, TN) interdependent networks.

Main Results:

  • Cooperative strategies consistently lead to superior restoration outcomes, irrespective of others' cooperation levels.
  • The need for cooperation intensifies when a dominant infrastructure provider is essential for others.
  • Resource availability and allocation significantly impact the effectiveness of restoration plans.

Conclusions:

  • Cooperation is paramount for effective infrastructure restoration and community resilience.
  • Policy strategies promoting cooperation incentives can significantly improve disaster recovery.
  • Game-theoretic models offer practical insights for decision-making in complex infrastructure networks.