Predictive Validity of the Johns Hopkins Fall Risk Assessment Tool for Older Patients in Stroke Rehabilitation

The aim of this retrospective, cross-sectional, observational study was to assess the frequency of falls and evaluate the predictive validity of the Johns Hopkins Fall Risk Assessment Tool (JHFRAT) among patients aged ≥65 years, transferred to the rehabilitation ward of a university hospital. The predictive ability was assessed using receiver operating characteristic curve analysis, and the optimal threshold was established using the Youden index. We analyzed the overall cohort (N = 175) with subacute stroke and the subgroup with a low unaffected handgrip strength (HGS; men: <28 kg, women: <18 kg). Overall, 135/175 patients (77.1%) had a low HGS. The fall rate was 6.9% overall and 5.9% for patients with a low HGS. The JHFRAT predictive value was higher for patients with a low HGS than that for the overall cohort, but acceptable in both. The optimal cutoff score for the overall cohort was 11 (sensitivity, 67%; specificity, 68%), whereas that for the subgroup was 12 (sensitivity, 75%; specificity: 72%). These results are expected to aid nurses working in rehabilitation wards in more effectively utilizing JHFRAT outcomes for post-stroke older patients with a low HGS and contribute to the development of more appropriate fall prevention strategies for high-risk patients in the future.