Predicting One-Year Mortality after Discharge Using Acute Heart Failure Score (AHFS)

Area of Science:

• Cardiology
• Clinical Medicine
• Public Health

Background:

• Acute heart failure (AHF) is a major cause of hospitalizations, readmissions, and mortality globally.
• Effective prognostic tools are needed for early risk stratification in AHF patients.

Purpose of the Study:

• To develop a bedside prognostic tool for acute heart failure (AHF) patients.
• To create a multivariable predictive risk score for early prognostic evaluation and risk stratification post-discharge.

Main Methods:

• Subanalysis of the STADE HF prospective randomized controlled trial (117 AHF patients).
• Regression analysis to identify predictors of one-year mortality and/or rehospitalisation.
• Development of a linear risk score model based on identified predictive variables.

Main Results:

• Four variables predicted one-year mortality: non-ischaemic HF aetiology, elevated creatinine, moderate/severe mitral regurgitation, and prior HF hospitalisation (AUC 0.84).
• A separate model identified non-ischaemic HF aetiology and prior HF hospitalisation as predictors of death/rehospitalisation (AUC 0.67).
• A validated risk score equation was developed for predicting mortality.

Conclusions:

• The developed risk score is a promising tool for assessing one-year mortality in AHF patients.
• The model aids clinicians in managing AHF patients to improve prognosis and reduce readmissions.
• Readily available variables form the basis of these effective prognostic tools.