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Updated: Jun 28, 2025

Author Spotlight: Advancements in Multiplex Detection of Respiratory Viruses
Published on: November 10, 2023
Identifiability issues in estimating the impact of interventions on Covid-19 spread
Fredrik Gustafsson1, Joakim Jaldén2, Bo Bernhardsson3
1Linköping University, Div. of Automatic Control, Linköping, Sweden.
None:
The Covid-19 pandemic has spawned numerous dynamic modeling attempts aimed at estimation, prediction, and ultimately control. The predictive power of these attempts has varied, and there remains a lack of consensus regarding the mechanisms of virus spread and the effectiveness of various non-pharmaceutical interventions that have been enforced regionally as well as nationally. Setting out in data available in the spring of 2020, and with a now-famous model by Imperial College researchers as example, we employ an information-theoretical approach to shed light on why the predictive power of early modeling approaches have remained disappointingly poor.
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