Related Experiment Video
Updated: Jun 28, 2025

Trajectory Data Analyses for Pedestrian Space-time Activity Study
Published on: February 25, 2013
Analysis of epidemic spread dynamics using a PDE model and COVID-19 data from Hamilton County OH USA
Faray Majid1, Aditya M Deshpande1, Subramanian Ramakrishnan2
1Department of Mechanical and Materials Engineering, University of Cincinnati, Cincinnati, OH, USA.
Abstract:
We study the spatiotemporal dynamics of an epidemic spread using a compartmentalized PDE model. The model is validated using COVID-19 data from Hamilton County, Ohio, USA. The model parameters are estimated using a month of recorded data and then used to forecast the infection spread over the next ten days. The model is able to accurately estimate the key dynamic characteristics of COVID-19 spread in the county. Additionally, a stability analysis indicates that the model is robust to disturbances and perturbations which, for instance, could be used to represent the effects of super spreader events. We also use the modeling framework to analyse and discuss the impact of Non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) for mitigation of infection. Our results suggest that such models can yield useful short and medium term predictive characterization of an epidemic spread in a restricted geographical region and also help formulate effective NPIs for mitigation. The results also signify the importance of further research into the accurate analytical representation of specific NPIs and hence their dampening effects on an infection spread.
Related Concept Videos
Steps in Outbreak Investigation
Statistical Methods for Analyzing Epidemiological Data
Pie Chart
In a pie chart, the central angle, the arc length of each slice, and the area are directly proportional to the quantity or percentage it represents. Some real-world examples that can be depicted using pie charts include marks obtained by students...
Pareto Chart
The Pareto chart is named after the Italian economist Vilfredo Pareto, who described the Pareto...
Mechanistic Models: Compartment Models in Individual and Population Analysis
Statistical Software for Data Analysis and Clinical Trials

