National Security Indicators Forecasting through the Pandemic.

Area of Science:

• Systems Dynamics
• Mathematical Modeling
• National Security Analysis

Background:

• The COVID-19 pandemic has significantly impacted global political, social, and economic landscapes.
• Assessing national security requires integrating pandemic-related factors into existing indicator models.
• Traditional security assessments may not adequately capture the dynamic effects of global health crises.

Purpose of the Study:

• To develop a mathematical model for assessing and predicting national security indicators.
• To incorporate the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic into national security assessments.
• To provide a framework for evaluating national stability and forecasting future trends.

Main Methods:

• Developed a model concept based on systemic dynamics for national security indicator prediction.
• Integrated factors describing COVID-19 spread, selected from common epidemiological models.
• Constructed causal complexes and systems of differential and residual equations to analyze indicator dynamics.
• Utilized a scenario approach to examine hypothetical consequences under variable conditions.

Main Results:

• The model provides a method for evaluating current national security with acceptable accuracy.
• The approach allows for short-term forecasting of national security indicators.
• The models quantify the impact of the pandemic on key security indicators.
• The framework is adaptable for application to different countries, illustrated with Germany.

Conclusions:

• The systemic dynamics model offers a robust mathematical apparatus for national security assessment during pandemics.
• The developed concept enables both current evaluation and short-term prediction of national security.
• The scenario-based approach enhances strategic planning by exploring potential future outcomes.