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Modeling of COVID-19 Cases in Pakistan Using Lifetime Probability Distributions.

Muhammad Ahsan-Ul-Haq1, Mukhtar Ahmed2, Javeria Zafar1

  • 1College of Statistical and Actuarial Sciences, University of the Punjab, Lahore, Pakistan.

Annals of Data Science
|April 16, 2024
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Summary
This summary is machine-generated.

This study analyzed daily COVID-19 confirmed cases in Pakistan using probability distributions. The Weibull distribution emerged as the best fit for understanding infection patterns.

Keywords:
CoronavirusDaily confirmed casesData analysisGoodness-of-fitLifetime distributions

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Area of Science:

  • Epidemiology
  • Biostatistics
  • Probability Theory

Background:

  • The Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19) pandemic has caused significant global mortality.
  • Understanding COVID-19 infection dynamics is crucial for public health and economic stability.
  • The World Health Organization (WHO) declared COVID-19 a global pandemic.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To analyze the frequency of daily confirmed COVID-19 cases in Pakistan.
  • To identify the best-fitting two-parameter lifetime probability distribution for modeling COVID-19 infection data.
  • To contribute to a better understanding of the random processes governing COVID-19 spread.

Main Methods:

  • Analysis of daily confirmed COVID-19 case data from Pakistan (March 11, 2020, to July 25, 2020).
  • Evaluation of nine different two-parameter lifetime probability distributions.
  • Selection of the best-fit distribution using goodness-of-fit measures including log-likelihood, AIC, BIC, RMSE, and R².

Main Results:

  • The Weibull distribution was identified as the generally best-fitting probability distribution for the analyzed COVID-19 case data.
  • Comparative analysis revealed varying performance among the nine tested distributions.
  • The chosen statistical measures effectively differentiated the goodness-of-fit for each distribution.

Conclusions:

  • The Weibull distribution offers a robust model for describing the frequency of daily confirmed COVID-19 cases in Pakistan.
  • This finding aids in understanding the stochastic nature of the pandemic's spread.
  • Accurate statistical modeling is essential for effective public health interventions during pandemics.