The association between initial COVID-19 spread and meteorological factors in Indonesia

On March 2, 2020, the first Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19) case was reported in Jakarta, Indonesia. One and a half months later (15/05/2020), the cumulative number of infection cases was 16,496, with a total of 1076 mortalities. This study investigates the possible role of weather in the early cases of COVID-19 in six selected cities in Indonesia. Daily temperature and relative humidity data from weather stations nearby in each city were collected from March 3 to April 30, 2020, corresponding with COVID-19 incidence. Correlation tests and regression analysis were performed to examine the association of those two data series. Moreover, we analyzed the distribution of COVID-19 referring the weather data to estimate the effective range of weather data supporting the COVID-19 incidence. Our result reveals that weather data is generally associated with COVID-19 incidence. The daily average temperature (T-ave) and relative humidity (RH) present significant positive and negative correlation with COVID-19 data, respectively. However, the correlation coefficients are weak, with the strongest correlations found at the 5-day lag, i.e., 0.37 (- 0.41) for T-ave (RH). The regression analysis consistently confirmed this relation. The distribution analysis reveals that most COVID-19 cases in Indonesia occurred in the daily temperature range of 25-31 °C and relative humidity of 74-92%. Our findings suggest that COVID-19 incidence in Indonesia has a weak association with weather conditions. Therefore, non-meteorological factors seem to play a more prominent role and should be given greater consideration in preventing the spread of COVID-19.

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s42398-021-00202-9.