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Development and comprehensive validation of a predictive prognosis model for very early HCC recurrence within one year after curative resection: a multicenter cohort study

  • 0The Third Department of Hepatic Surgery, Eastern Hepatobiliary Surgery Hospital.
International Journal of Surgery (london, England) +

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April 16, 2024

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April 16, 2024

View abstract on PubMed

Summary

This summary is machine-generated.

A new model, VERM-pre, accurately predicts very early recurrence of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) after liver resection. This tool aids in assessing patient risk for 1-year recurrence, improving long-term survival predictions.

Area Of Science

  • Hepatobiliary surgery
  • Surgical oncology
  • Medical informatics

Background

  • Early recurrence of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) after liver resection (LR) significantly impacts long-term survival.
  • Predicting very early (1-year) recurrence risk is crucial for improving patient outcomes.

Purpose Of The Study

  • To develop and validate a prognostic model for predicting the risk of very early recurrence of HCC post-liver resection.
  • To identify independent risk factors associated with recurrence-free survival in HCC patients undergoing LR.

Main Methods

  • A multicenter study enrolled 7401 patients undergoing LR for HCC with curative intent.
  • The VERM-pre model was developed using identified risk factors and validated retrospectively and prospectively.
  • Key predictors included tumor diameter, number, macrovascular invasion, satellite nodule, alpha-fetoprotein, HBV-DNA, γ-GT, and prothrombin time.

Main Results

  • The VERM-pre model demonstrated good discrimination (C-index: 0.722) and was validated across internal, external, and prospective cohorts.
  • Calibration plots confirmed satisfactory fitting for predicting early HCC recurrence.
  • Three risk strata (low, intermediate, high) showed significantly different recurrence-free survival rates, with the prospective cohort confirming predictive accuracy.

Conclusions

  • The VERM-pre model accurately predicts 1-year recurrence rates for HCC after curative LR.
  • The model's retrospective and prospective validation supports its clinical utility.
  • VERM-pre has been developed into an online tool for practical application.