Estimates of lithium mass yields from produced water sourced from the Devonian-aged Marcellus Shale

Decarbonatization initiatives have rapidly increased the demand for lithium. This study uses public waste compliance reports and Monte Carlo approaches to estimate total lithium mass yields from produced water (PW) sourced from the Marcellus Shale in Pennsylvania (PA). Statewide, Marcellus Shale PW has substantial extractable lithium, however, concentrations, production volumes and extraction efficiencies vary between the northeast and southwest operating zones. Annual estimates suggest statewide lithium mass yields of approximately 1160 (95% CI 1140-1180) metric tons (mt) per year. Production decline curve analysis on PW volumes reveal cumulative volumetric disparities between the northeast (median = 2.89 X 10⁷ L/10-year) and southwest (median = 5.56 × 10⁷ L/10-year) regions of the state, influencing lithium yield estimates of individual wells in southwest [2.90 (95% CI 2.80-2.99) mt/10-year] and northeast [1.96 (CI 1.86-2.07) mt/10-year] PA. Moreover, Mg/Li mass ratios vary regionally, where NE PA are low Mg/Li fluids, having a median Mg/Li mass ratio of 5.39 (IQR, 2.66-7.26) and SW PA PW is higher with a median Mg/Li mass ratio of 17.8 (IQR, 14.3-20.7). These estimates indicate substantial lithium yields from Marcellus PW, though regional variability in chemistry and production may impact recovery efficiencies.