A 16-Year Analysis of Aesthetic Surgery Volume and Its Association With US Economic Performance

Historically, demand for plastic surgery has been associated with the performance of the US economy. This study evaluates the relationship between economic performance indicators and the popularity and profitability of aesthetic surgery from 2006 to 2022, considering several recessions and the rise of social media. The data were collected from the Aesthetic Society's (AS) Aesthetic Plastic Surgery National Databank and the American Society of Plastic Surgeons' (ASPS) Plastic Surgery Statistics Report from 2006 to 2022. Procedures analyzed included the most performed cosmetic surgeries, as well as neuromodulator injections and dermal fillers. Pearson correlation tests were used to analyze the strength of association between 8 financial indicators and case volumes and expenditures for each procedure. From 2006 to 2020, ASPS data demonstrated gross domestic product (GDP) per capita year-over-year (YOY) change that was positively correlated with case volume and expenditures across 13 out of the 24 different procedure metrics (54.2%). From 2006 to 2016, AS data were positively correlated with the YOY change of theNational Association of Securities Dealers Automated Quotations (NASDAQ), Standard and Poor's 500, and Dow Jones in 12 of the 24 variables (50%). This was followed by GDP YOY change, with positive correlations to 11 variables (45.8%). YOY changes of consumer-level finances and inflation indicators were less frequently associated among both datasets.In conclusion, our study shows that aesthetic plastic surgery procedures and expenditures correlate with GDP. Although aesthetic surgery demand may be difficult to anticipate, this study elucidates several factors plastic surgeons may use as a bellwether for their practices.