TP or Not TP? Successful Comparison of Two Independent Methods Validates Total Phosphorus Inference for Long-Term...

Validating paleo total phosphorus (TP) inference methods over long time scales is essential for understanding historic changes in lake P supply and the processes leading up to the present-day global lake eutrophication crisis. Monitored lake water TP time series have enabled us to identify the drivers of eutrophication over recent decades. However, over longer time scales, the lack of reliable TP inference means our understanding of drivers is speculative. Validation of lake water TP reconstruction, therefore, remains the "ultimate aim" of eutrophication studies. Here, we present the first critical comparison of two fully independent paleo TP inference approaches: the well-established diatom method (DI-TP) and a recently developed sediment geochemical method (SI-TP). Using lake sediment records from a small eutrophic U.K. lake (Crose Mere), we find a statistically significant agreement between the two inferred TP records with greater than 60% shared variance. Both records show identical timings, with a 19th century acceleration in TP concentration and subsequent declines following a peak in 1930. This significant agreement establishes the validity of long-term paleo TP inference for the first time. With this, we can now test assumptions and paradigms that underpin understanding of catchment P sources and pathways over longer time scales.