[Association of triglyceride glucose index and risk of incident hypertension: a prospective cohort study]

Objective: To explore the relationship between the triglyceride glucose (TyG) index and the risk of developing hypertension among rural Chinese adults. Methods: A prospective cohort study was conducted from 2007 to 2008, involving 20 194 adults selected through random cluster sampling from a rural community in Luoyang City, Henan Province. Follow-ups were carried out in 2013-2014 and 2018-2020. After excluding participants with hypertension at baseline, those with missing TyG index data, individuals who passed away during follow-up, and those with incomplete hypertension status at the second visit, 9 802 participants were included in the analysis. Baseline and follow-up assessments included questionnaire interviews, physical measurements (including blood pressure), and blood sample collection for fasting lipid and glucose levels. Participants were divided into four groups according to TyG index quartiles, and a modified Poisson regression model was utilized to assess the association between TyG index quartiles and hypertension risk. Results: The study cohort comprised 9 802 participants with a median age of 48 (39, 57) years, including 3 803 males (38.80%). Participants were distributed across TyG index quartiles as follows: TyG<8.2 group (2 224 individuals), TyG 8.2-8.5 group (2 653 individuals), TyG 8.6-8.9 (2 441 individuals), and TyG≥9.0 (2 484 individuals). Over a follow-up period of (11.1±1.3) years, 3 378 subjects developed hypertension, resulting in a cumulative incidence of 34.46% (3 378/9 802). The risk of hypertension increased with higher TyG index quartiles (P_trend<0.05). Compared to the TyG<8.2, the TyG 8.2-8.5 (RR=1.11, 95%CI 1.01-1.22, P=0.023), TyG 8.6-8.9 (RR=1.16, 95%CI 1.06-1.27, P=0.023), and TyG≥9.0 (RR=1.20, 95%CI 1.10-1.31, P=0.023) exhibited increased hypertension risk after adjusting for age, gender, educational level, and other potential confounders. Subgroup analyses based on gender and age at baseline yielded results consistent with the main analysis. Conclusions: The TyG index is positively correlated with the risk of developing hypertension in the rural adult population.