Optimal decision-making in relieving global high temperature-related disease burden by data-driven simulation.

Area of Science:

• Environmental Health
• Epidemiology
• Data Science & Artificial Intelligence

Background:

• Global warming is accelerating, increasing the incidence of high temperature-related diseases (HTDs).
• Existing management strategies for HTDs require enhancement through evidence-based, context-specific approaches.
• The One Health concept provides a framework for addressing complex health challenges at the intersection of human, animal, and environmental health.

Purpose of the Study:

• To develop a conceptual framework and data-driven models for alleviating the global burden of HTDs.
• To identify and evaluate optimal intervention strategies for mitigating HTDs across diverse geographical regions.
• To provide a systematic methodology for policymakers to inform evidence-based decision-making for HTD management.

Main Methods:

• Collected national-level data from 2010-2019 on five disease categories (cardiovascular, infectious respiratory, injuries, metabolic, non-infectious respiratory) as intermediate outcomes.
• Developed and evaluated eight predictive models, selecting the Graph Neural Network (GNN) model for its superior performance.
• Utilized GNN simulations to identify optimal intervention strategies tailored to seven major global regions.

Main Results:

• The Graph Neural Network (GNN) model demonstrated superior predictive performance for assessing HTD burden.
• Identified a set of optimal intervention strategies, including promoting low-carbon energy, improving livestock feed, and enhancing healthcare access.
• Sectoral measures in Infrastructure & Community, Ecosystem Resilience, and Health System Capacity showed significant impact across regions.

Conclusions:

• A novel decision-making tool has been developed to systematically address the growing challenge of high temperature-related diseases.
• The study highlights the effectiveness of tailored, multi-sectoral interventions in mitigating HTD burden globally.
• This framework supports policymakers in developing targeted strategies to combat the health impacts of global warming.