Phenotypic and genomic modeling of lactation curves: A longitudinal perspective

Lactation curves, which describe the production pattern of milk-related traits over time, provide insightful information about individual cow health, resilience, and milk production efficiency. Key functional traits can be derived through lactation curve modeling, such as lactation peak and persistency. Furthermore, novel traits such as resilience indicators can be derived based on the variability of the deviations of observed milk yield from the expected lactation curve fitted for each animal. Lactation curve parameters are heritable, indicating that one can modify the average lactation curve of a population through selective breeding. Various statistical methods can be used for modeling longitudinal traits. Among them, the use of random regression models enables a more flexible and robust modeling of lactation curves compared with traditional models used to evaluate accumulated milk 305-d yield, as they enable the estimation of both genetic and environmental effects affecting milk production traits over time. In this symposium review, we discuss the importance of evaluating lactation curves from a longitudinal perspective and various statistical and mathematical models used to analyze longitudinal data. We also highlighted the key factors that influence milk production over time, and the potential applications of longitudinal analyses of lactation curves in improving animal health, resilience, and milk production efficiency. Overall, analyzing the longitudinal nature of milk yield will continue to play a crucial role in improving the production efficiency and sustainability of the dairy industry, and the methods and models developed can be easily translated to other longitudinal traits.