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Establishing a Competing Risk Regression Nomogram Model for Survival Data
Published on: October 23, 2020
Comparing gastrointestinal stromal tumor outcomes between geriatric and non-geriatric patients: A population-based
Abhiram Singh1,2, Bhargava Chitti1, Christopher Aguiar3
1Department of Radiation Oncology, Northwell, New Hyde Park, New York, USA.
Background:
Gastrointestinal Stromal Tumors (GISTs) are the most common mesenchymal tumors of the GI tract. SEER is an extensive cancer database which proves useful in analyzing population trends. This analysis investigated GIST outcomes between geriatric & non-geriatric patients.
Methods:
SEER*STAT 8.4.0.1 was used to extract relevant GIST data from 2000 to 2019. Geriatric age was defined as ≥70 years. Variables included age, sex, surgery, cancer-specific death, and overall survival. Statistical tests included univariate analysis using KM survival estimate (95% confidence interval) to calculate 5-year survival (5YS). Log-Rank tests determined statistical significance. Multivariable Cox's PH regression estimated the geriatric hazard death ratio adjusted for sex, stage, and surgery.
Results:
The number of patients included was 13,579, yielding overall 5YS of 68.6% (95% CI 67.7-69.5). Cancer-specific death was 39.11% in 2000 & 3.33% in 2019. Non-geriatric & geriatric patient data yielded 5YS of 77.4% (76.4%-78.3%) and 53.3% (51.7%-54.8%) respectively (p < 0.0001). For no surgery/surgery, younger patient data yielded 5YS of 48.7% (45.8%-51.4%) and 83.7% (82.7%-84.7%) respectively (p < 0.0001); geriatric data yielded 5YS of 29.3% (26.5%-32.1%) and 62.8% (60.8%-64.6%) respectively (p < 0.0001). Multivariable analysis yielded a geriatric hazard death of 2.56 (2.42-2.70) (p < 0.0001).
Conclusions:
Cancer-specific death decreased since 2000, indicating an improvement in survival & treatment methods. Observed lower survival rates overall in the geriatric group. Surgery appeared to enhance survival rates in both groups, suggesting that surgery is an important factor in GIST survival regardless of age. Large prospective studies will help define clinical management for geriatric patients.
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