On being unpredictable and winning
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View abstract on PubMed
Summary
This summary is machine-generated.Competitors strategically use unpredictable behavior, like varying hostility and friendliness, to gain an advantage. This unpredictability in conflict, driven by a desire to win, incurs significant welfare costs for all involved.
Area Of Science
- Behavioral Economics
- Psychology
- Game Theory
Background
- Competitors may benefit from unpredictable strategies, but empirical evidence on its application and impact is limited.
- Understanding how and why competitors employ unpredictability in conflict is crucial for analyzing competitive dynamics.
Purpose Of The Study
- To investigate the empirical reality of unpredictable competitive strategies.
- To explore the drivers and consequences of unpredictability in attacker-defender contests.
- To determine the motivational basis and welfare implications of unpredictable conflict behavior.
Main Methods
- Reanalysis of nine experiments (N=650) examining variability in proactive attacks and reactive defense.
- Experimental study (N=200) assessing the impact of variability on predictability.
- Hormonal analysis (testosterone) and physiological measures (sympathetic arousal) in studies with N=27 and N=106.
Main Results
- Significant cross-trial variability observed, particularly in proactive attacks.
- Increased variability enhances unpredictability for both attackers and defenders, especially when driven by occasional extreme investments.
- Precontest testosterone levels correlate with attack variability, leading to increased defender arousal and variability.
Conclusions
- Unpredictability in conflict is not solely for wealth maximization but stems from a "win at all costs" mentality.
- This drive for unpredictability results in substantial welfare costs for both the winner and the loser.
- The findings highlight the complex interplay of strategy, motivation, and physiological factors in competitive interactions.
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