Spatial analysis of American cutaneous leishmaniasis in the state of Amazonas

To evaluate, using spatial analysis, the occurrence of American Cutaneous Leishmaniasis (ACL) and analyze its association with the municipal human development index (MHDI) and deforestation in the state of Amazonas, Brazil, from 2016 to 2020.

This ecological study, carried out from January 2016 to December 2020, included the 62 municipalities of the state of Amazonas. The incidence rate of ACL was determined in space and time. Using Multiple Linear Regression by Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) and Spatial Autoregressive Regression (SAR) models, the relationship between incidence rates and Human Development Index (HDI) and deforestation was analyzed., The high- and low-risk clusters were identified by employing the Getis-Ord Gi* statistic.

A total of 7,499 cases of ACL were registered in all 62 municipalities in the state. Most cases were in male (n=5,924; 79.24%), with the greatest frequency in the population aged from 20 to 39 years (n=3,356; 44.7%). The incidence rate in the state of Amazonas was 7.34 cases per 100,000 inhabitants-year, with the municipalities of Rio Preto da Eva and Presidente Figueiredo showing the highest rates (1,377.5 and 817.5 cases per 100,000 population-year, respectively). The ACL cases were clustered into specific areas related to those municipalities with the highest incidence rates. The SAR model revealed a positive relationship between ACL and deforestation.

The occurrence of ACL was evident in a variety of patterns in the state of Amazonas; the high incidence rates and persistence of this disease in this state were linked to deforestation. The temporal distribution showed variations in the incidence rates during each year. Our results can help optimize the measures needed to prevent and control this disease in the state.