Accelerating Progress Towards the 2030 Neglected Tropical Diseases Targets: How Can Quantitative Modeling Support...

Area of Science:

• Public Health
• Epidemiology
• Mathematical Biology

Background:

• Significant progress in controlling neglected tropical diseases (NTDs) has been achieved over the last decade.
• Recent setbacks, particularly service disruptions from the COVID-19 pandemic, have impacted NTD programs.
• The 2021-2030 NTD roadmap requires effective strategies to meet elimination and eradication targets.

Purpose of the Study:

• To identify priority mathematical modeling questions relevant to national and subnational NTD programs.
• To explore how quantitative modeling can support decision-making for NTD interventions.
• To align modeling efforts with the goals of the WHO NTD roadmap.

Main Methods:

• Convened a World Health Organization stakeholder meeting in September 2022.
• Gathered input from experts involved in designing, implementing, and evaluating NTD programs.
• Synthesized and analyzed priority modeling questions across various NTDs.

Main Results:

• Identified common themes and critical questions for mathematical modeling in NTD control.
• Highlighted the potential of modeling to inform intervention selection and resource allocation.
• Demonstrated the need for modeling to address challenges faced by NTD programs.

Conclusions:

• Mathematical modeling is crucial for navigating setbacks and accelerating progress towards 2030 NTD targets.
• Prioritizing locally relevant modeling questions can enhance the effectiveness of NTD interventions.
• Quantitative modeling offers valuable support for programmatic decisions in public health.