Ecological inferences on invasive carp survival using hydrodynamics and egg drift models

Bighead carp (Hypophthalmichthys nobilis), silver carp (H. molitrix), black carp (Mylopharyngodon piceus), and grass carp (Ctenopharyngodon idella), are invasive species in North America. However, they hold significant economic importance as food sources in China. The drifting stage of carp eggs has received great attention because egg survival rate is strongly affected by river hydrodynamics. In this study, we explored egg-drift dynamics using computational fluid dynamics (CFD) models to infer potential egg settling zones based on mechanistic criteria from simulated turbulence in the Lower Missouri River. Using an 8-km reach, we simulated flow characteristics with four different discharges, representing 45-3% daily flow exceedance. The CFD results elucidate the highly heterogeneous spatial distribution of flow velocity, flow depth, turbulence kinetic energy (TKE), and the dissipation rate of TKE. The river hydrodynamics were used to determine potential egg settling zones using criteria based on shear velocity, vertical turbulence intensity, and Rouse number. Importantly, we examined the difference between hydrodynamic-inferred settling zones and settling zones predicted using an egg-drift transport model. The results indicate that hydrodynamic inference is useful in determining the 'potential' of egg settling, however, egg drifting paths should be taken into account to improve prediction. Our simulation results also indicate that the river turbulence does not surpass the laboratory-identified threshold to pose a threat to carp eggs.