Decline in seasonal predictability potentially destabilized Classic Maya societies

Area of Science:

• Paleoclimatology
• Archaeology
• Maya Civilization Studies

Background:

• Classic Maya societies relied heavily on predictable seasonal rainfall for agricultural surplus.
• The impact of climate change on Classic Maya collapse (750-950 CE) remains a subject of debate.
• Understanding hydroclimatic variability is key to explaining societal resilience and collapse.

Purpose of the Study:

• To analyze seasonal rainfall patterns over the past 1600 years using a speleothem record.
• To investigate the relationship between hydroclimatic changes and the disintegration of Classic Maya institutions.
• To assess the role of rainfall predictability, not just drought, in Maya societal decline.

Main Methods:

• Precise dating of a speleothem record from Yok Balum cave, Belize.
• Analysis of local hydroclimatic variations at a seasonal scale.
• Correlation of paleoclimate data with historical periods of Maya sociopolitical change.

Main Results:

• A significant decrease in rainfall predictability and severe drought occurred between 700 and 800 CE.
• This period coincided with the initial disintegration of Maya sociopolitical institutions and population decline.
• Reduced predictability in seasonal rainfall, possibly linked to the Intertropical Convergence Zone, exacerbated societal instability.

Conclusions:

• The failure of Classic Maya societies to adapt to volatile rainfall dynamics contributed to their gradual disintegration.
• Societal collapse was likely driven by a combination of severe drought and decreased rainfall predictability.
• Rethinking Maya collapse requires considering the impact of year-to-year climate variability alongside prolonged drought events.