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Projected decrease in trail access in the Arctic
J D Ford1, D G Clark2, L Copland3
1Priestley International Centre for Climate, University of Leeds, Leeds, UK.
Communications Earth & Environment
|April 26, 2024
Summary
Climate change will reduce access to land, water, and sea ice trails in Inuit Nunangat this century. Adaptation strategies can help, but their effectiveness decreases with rising global temperatures, especially for crucial sea ice trails.
Area of Science:
- Arctic studies
- Climate change impacts
- Transportation science
Background:
- Northern transportation systems are vulnerable to climate change.
- Inuit Nunangat relies on semi-permanent trails for livelihoods and culture.
Purpose of the Study:
- To project changes in trail access in Inuit Nunangat throughout the 21st century.
- To assess the impact of climate change on land, water, and sea ice trails.
Main Methods:
- Utilized Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) climate projections.
- Developed trail access models in collaboration with community members.
Main Results:
- Overall trail access is projected to decrease significantly.
- Sea ice trail access, vital for Inuit culture, faces substantial declines.
- Adaptation limits are expected in southern Inuit Nunangat within 40 years.
- Periods of inaccessible trails will lengthen, impacting travel and safety.
Conclusions:
- Community-based adaptation, like enhancing travel skills, can extend trail accessibility.
- Adaptation effectiveness diminishes with higher global warming levels.
- In southern regions, adaptation may only delay the loss of sea ice trails.
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