The predictive value of T-cell chimerism for disease relapse after allogeneic hematopoietic stem cell transplantation

Chimerism is closely correlated with disease relapse after allogeneic hematopoietic stem cell transplantation (allo-HSCT). However, chimerism rate is dynamic changes, and the sensitivity of different chimerism requires further research.

To investigate the predictive value of distinct chimerism for relapse, we measured bone marrow (BM), peripheral blood (PB), and T-cell (isolated from BM) chimerism in 178 patients after allo-HSCT.

Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve showed that T-cell chimerism was more suitable to predict relapse after allo-HSCT compared with PB and BM chimerism. The cutoff value of T-cell chimerism for predicting relapse was 99.45%. Leukemia and myelodysplastic syndrome (MDS) relapse patients' T-cell chimerism was a gradual decline from 2 months to 9 months after allo-HSCT. Higher risk of relapse and death within 1 year after allo-HSCT. The T-cell chimerism rates in remission and relapse patients were 99.43% and 94.28% at 3 months after allo-HSCT (P = 0.009), 99.31% and 95.27% at 6 months after allo-HSCT (P = 0.013), and 99.26% and 91.32% at 9 months after allo-HSCT (P = 0.024), respectively. There was a significant difference (P = 0.036) for T-cell chimerism between early relapse (relapse within 9 months after allo-HSCT) and late relapse (relapse after 9 months after allo-HSCT) at 2 months after allo-HSCT. Every 1% increase in T-cell chimerism, the hazard ratio for disease relapse was 0.967 (95% CI: 0.948-0.987, P<0.001).

We recommend constant monitoring T-cell chimerism at 2, 3, 6, and 9 months after allo-HSCT to predict relapse.