Relationship between METS-IR and thyroid cancer incidence in Korea: a nationwide population-based study

Several previous studies found a positive relationship between metabolic syndrome (MetS) and thyroid cancer (TC) risk. However, there is no research that has studied the relationship between the metabolic score for insulin resistance (METS-IR), a novel surrogate marker for IR, and TC incidence. Thus, we designed this retrospective cohort study to evaluate the relationship between the incidence of TC and METS-IR.

We analyzed a cohort of 314,321 Korean adults aged over 40 years who participated in the National Health Screening Program from 2009 to 2010. The individuals were divided into four groups based on METS-IR quartiles. Follow-up was until the diagnosis of TC or death, or until December 31, 2019, if neither. The relationship between METS-IR and TC incidence was analyzed using the Cox proportional-hazards model with multi-variable adjustments.

A total of 4,137 participants (1.3%) were diagnosed with TC during a mean follow-up of 9.5 ± 1.5 years. The population with Q1 METS-IR scores showed higher disease-free probabilities than those with Q4 METS-IR scores (p <0.001). The hazard ratio (95% confidential interval) for TC incidence in Q2, Q3, and Q4 METS-IR value were 1.14 (1.05 to 1.25), 1.21 (1.11 to 1.33), and 1.30 (1.18 to 1.42) compared with Q1 of METS-IR, respectively. The incidence of TC tended to increase with increasing METS-IR values in the total population, especially the male population in the restricted cubic spline. In subgroup analysis, the TC risk was more pronounced in the subgroups under 65 and with a BMI < 25 kg/m².

METS-IR was positively correlated with TC incidence in Korea.