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Chaos in Opinion-Driven Disease Dynamics
Thomas Götz1, Tyll Krüger2, Karol Niedzielewski3
1Mathematical Institute, University of Koblenz, 56070 Koblenz, Germany.
Entropy (Basel, Switzerland)
|April 26, 2024
Summary
Societal acceptance influences intervention effectiveness during epidemics. This study models coupled opinion-epidemic systems, revealing complex dynamics that impact infection rates and showing a protective pattern.
Area of Science:
- Epidemiology
- Sociology
- Mathematical modeling
Background:
- Societal acceptance is crucial for the success of public health interventions, particularly during pandemics like COVID-19.
- Opinion formation processes significantly impact public adherence to and acceptance of these measures.
- Understanding the interplay between public opinion and disease spread is vital for effective epidemic control.
Purpose of the Study:
- To investigate the dynamics of coupled opinion-epidemic systems.
- To explore how opinion formation influences epidemic trajectories.
- To identify potential patterns or behaviors within these coupled systems.
Main Methods:
- Development of a mathematical model simulating coupled opinion and epidemic dynamics.
- Analysis of model outputs to identify patterns such as periodic or chaotic behavior.
- Evaluation of the impact of opinion distribution on infection rates over time.
Main Results:
- The coupled opinion-epidemic model exhibits complex dynamics, including intricate periodic patterns and chaotic behavior.
- Significant fluctuations in opinion distribution were observed, directly correlating with variations in total infection numbers.
- A notable protective pattern emerged from the model's simulations.
Conclusions:
- Opinion dynamics play a critical role in modulating epidemic outcomes.
- The interplay between societal opinions and disease spread can lead to unpredictable yet potentially manageable patterns.
- The identified protective pattern suggests avenues for optimizing public health strategies by considering opinion formation.
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