Smoking, Lung Cancer Stage, and Prognostic Factors-Findings from the National Lung Screening Trial

Low-dose computed tomography (LDCT) increases the early detection of lung cancer. Identifying modifiable behaviors that may affect tumor progression in LDCT-detected patients increases the likelihood of long-term survival and a good quality of life.

We examined cigarette smoking behaviors on lung cancer stage, progression, and survival in 299 ever-smoking patients with low-dose CT-detected tumors from the National Lung Screening Trial. Univariate and multivariate Cox models were used to estimate the hazard ratio (HR) for smoking variables on survival time.

Current vs. former smokers and early morning smokers (≤5 min after waking, i.e., time to first cigarette (TTFC) ≤ 5 min) had more advanced-stage lung cancer. The adjusted HR for current vs. former smokers was 1.3 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.911-1.98, p = 0.136) for overall survival (OS) and 1.3 (0.893-1.87, p = 0.1736) for progression-free survival (PFS). The univariate hazard ratios for TTFC ≤ 5 min vs. >5 min were 1.56 (1.1-2.2, p = 0.013) for OS and 1.53 (1.1-2.12, p = 0.01) for PFS. Among current smokers, the corresponding HRs for early TTFC were 1.78 (1.16-2.74, p = 0.0088) and 1.95 (1.29-2.95, p = 0.0016) for OS and PFS, respectively. In causal mediation analysis, the TTFC effect on survival time was mediated entirely through lung cancer stage.

The current findings indicate smoking behaviors at diagnosis may affect lung cancer stage and prognosis.