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Analysis of Uncertainty and Sensitivity in Tailings Dam Breach-Runout Numerical Modelling
Negar Ghahramani1,2, Daniel A M Adria1,3, Nahyan M Rana4
1Department of Earth, Ocean and Atmospheric Sciences, The University of British Columbia, Vancouver, Canada.
Mine Water and the Environment
|April 29, 2024
Summary
Uncertainty in tailings dam breach (TDB) runout modeling is reduced by applying the first-order second-moment (FOSM) methodology. Key factors like released volume and surface roughness influence model predictions, improving risk assessments.
Area of Science:
- Geotechnical Engineering
- Environmental Science
- Risk Assessment
Background:
- Tailings dam breaches (TDBs) present significant risks to safety, environment, and economy.
- Numerical runout models are crucial for simulating TDBs and assessing downstream impacts.
- High uncertainty exists in TDB mobility and impact predictions due to complex breach-runout processes.
Purpose of the Study:
- To evaluate uncertainties in TDB runout modeling using the first-order second-moment (FOSM) methodology.
- To identify key factors influencing HEC-RAS model output variability through sensitivity analysis.
- To propose FOSM as a probabilistic approach for improved tailings flow runout prediction.
Main Methods:
- Applied the FOSM methodology to 11 back-analyzed historical tailings flows.
- Conducted sensitivity analysis on HEC-RAS model outputs at various runout path locations.
- Investigated the influence of parameters like released volume and surface roughness.
Main Results:
- Total released volume significantly impacts inundation area and flow depth.
- Surface roughness is a key factor for flow velocity and arrival time.
- Primary sensitivity contributors vary by case study, emphasizing site-specific conditions.
Conclusions:
- The FOSM methodology offers an effective approximate probabilistic approach for TDB runout modeling.
- Accurate predictions require careful selection of rheological models and consideration of site-specific data.
- Improved modeling accuracy enhances risk assessments and emergency response planning for TDBs.
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