High Variability of Body Mass Index Is Independently Associated With Incident Heart Failure

Area of Science:

• Cardiology
• Public Health
• Obesity Research

Background:

• Heart failure (HF) is a growing public health concern with high morbidity and mortality.
• Obesity is a known risk factor for HF, and recent evidence suggests BMI fluctuations may also elevate cardiovascular risk.

Purpose of the Study:

• To investigate the association between body mass index (BMI) variability and the incidence of heart failure (HF).

Main Methods:

• A prospective cohort study of 99,368 White participants from the UK Biobank was established.
• Within-participant BMI variability was assessed using standardized deviation and coefficient of variation over a median follow-up of 12.5 years.
• A competing risk model (Fine and Gray) was used to analyze the association between BMI variability and incident HF, adjusting for confounders.

Main Results:

• Higher BMI variability, measured by both SD and coefficient of variation, was significantly associated with an increased risk of HF incidence.
• The hazard ratio for HF incidence increased with higher BMI variability (SD: HR 1.05, 95% CI 1.03-1.08; CV: HR 1.07, 95% CI 1.04-1.10).

Conclusions:

• Longitudinal health records effectively capture BMI fluctuations.
• BMI fluctuation independently predicts the incidence of heart failure (HF).