Community screening for dementia among older adults in China: a machine learning-based strategy

Dementia is a leading cause of disability in people older than 65 years worldwide. However, diagnosing dementia in its earliest symptomatic stages remains challenging. This study combined specific questions from the AD8 scale with comprehensive health-related characteristics, and used machine learning (ML) to construct diagnostic models of cognitive impairment (CI).

The study was based on the Shenzhen Healthy Ageing Research (SHARE) project, and we recruited 823 participants aged 65 years and older, who completed a comprehensive health assessment and cognitive function assessments. Permutation importance was used to select features. Five ML models using BalanceCascade were applied to predict CI: a support vector machine (SVM), multilayer perceptron (MLP), AdaBoost, gradient boosting decision tree (GBDT), and logistic regression (LR). An AD8 score ≥ 2 was used to define CI as a baseline. SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) values were used to interpret the results of ML models.

The first and sixth items of AD8, platelets, waist circumference, body mass index, carcinoembryonic antigens, age, serum uric acid, white blood cells, abnormal electrocardiogram, heart rate, and sex were selected as predictive features. Compared to the baseline (AUC = 0.65), the MLP showed the highest performance (AUC: 0.83 ± 0.04), followed by AdaBoost (AUC: 0.80 ± 0.04), SVM (AUC: 0.78 ± 0.04), GBDT (0.76 ± 0.04). Furthermore, the accuracy, sensitivity and specificity of four ML models were higher than the baseline. SHAP summary plots based on MLP showed the most influential feature on model decision for positive CI prediction was female sex, followed by older age and lower waist circumference.

The diagnostic models of CI applying ML, especially the MLP, were substantially more effective than the traditional AD8 scale with a score of ≥ 2 points. Our findings may provide new ideas for community dementia screening and to promote such screening while minimizing medical and health resources.