Proper network randomization is key to assessing social balance

Social ties, either positive or negative, lead to signed network patterns, the subject of balance theory. For example, strong balance introduces cycles with even numbers of negative edges. The statistical significance of such patterns is routinely assessed by comparisons to null models. Yet, results in signed networks remain controversial. Here, we show that even if a network exhibits strong balance by construction, current null models can fail to identify it. Our results indicate that matching the signed degree preferences of the nodes is a critical step and so is the preservation of network topology in the null model. As a solution, we propose the STP null model, which integrates both constraints within a maximum entropy framework. STP randomization leads to qualitatively different results, with most social networks consistently demonstrating strong balance in three- and four-node patterns. On the basis our results, we present a potential wiring mechanism behind the observed signed patterns and outline further applications of STP randomization.