Association of cigarette smoking with changes in macroeconomic conditions

This study uses data from the 1987-2022 Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System and state-level employment rates from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics to estimate the association between macroeconomic conditions and cigarette smoking. Our finding suggests a positive association, which constantly declined with time after the 2001 recession. We find that a one percentage point increase in the employment rate is associated with a 1.4% higher likelihood of smoking cigarettes in the overall sample but declined to 0.4% among cohorts surveyed from 2011 to 2022. We also find strong positive and heterogeneous associations among sociodemographic groups, except among Blacks and persons aged 65 years and older, among whom there is no association; however, the positive associations consistently decreased among these sociodemographic groups. Consequently, the strong positive association disappeared in several sociodemographic groups in cohorts surveyed over the last decade.