Construction and validation of a deep learning prognostic model based on digital pathology images of stage III...

TNM staging is the main reference standard for prognostic prediction of colorectal cancer (CRC), but the prognosis heterogeneity of patients with the same stage is still large. This study aimed to classify the tumor microenvironment of patients with stage III CRC and quantify the classified tumor tissues based on deep learning to explore the prognostic value of the developed tumor risk signature (TRS).

A tissue classification model was developed to identify nine tissues (adipose, background, debris, lymphocytes, mucus, smooth muscle, normal mucosa, stroma, and tumor) in whole-slide images (WSIs) of stage III CRC patients. This model was used to extract tumor tissues from WSIs of 265 stage III CRC patients from The Cancer Genome Atlas and 70 stage III CRC patients from the Sixth Affiliated Hospital of Sun Yat-sen University. We used three different deep learning models for tumor feature extraction and applied a Cox model to establish the TRS. Survival analysis was conducted to explore the prognostic performance of TRS.

The tissue classification model achieved 94.4 % accuracy in identifying nine tissue types. The TRS showed a Harrell's concordance index of 0.736, 0.716, and 0.711 in the internal training, internal validation, and external validation sets. Survival analysis showed that TRS had significant predictive ability (hazard ratio: 3.632, p = 0.03) for prognostic prediction.

The TRS is an independent and significant prognostic factor for PFS of stage III CRC patients and it contributes to risk stratification of patients with different clinical stages.