Opposing Patterns of Spatial Synchrony in Lyme Disease Incidence

Area of Science:

• Epidemiology
• Spatial Analysis
• Public Health

Background:

• Lyme disease (LD) incidence is rising in the US, impacting public health.
• Understanding spatial and temporal patterns of LD is crucial for effective control.

Purpose of the Study:

• To investigate space-time patterns of LD incidence in US counties.
• To identify ecological and social factors influencing spatial synchrony in LD incidence.
• To explore geographical variations in these influencing factors.

Main Methods:

• Network analysis and matrix regression were employed.
• Data from 399 counties in the eastern and Midwestern US were analyzed.
• Space-time patterns of LD incidence and synchrony were examined.

Main Results:

• Two distinct regions of LD incidence synchrony were identified: Northeast and upper Midwest, with opposing temporal fluctuations.
• Spatial patterns of LD synchrony were associated with land cover, weather, poverty, and tick-borne disease awareness.
• The influence of these factors varied significantly across different geographic regions.

Conclusions:

• LD incidence exhibits complex spatial synchrony, influenced by a combination of environmental and socioeconomic factors.
• Emerging synchrony between regions may lead to amplified nationwide LD incidence fluctuations.
• Geographically tailored public health interventions may be necessary to manage LD spread.