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Consistent interpretation of verbal probability terms like "likely" and "possible" is crucial for clear risk communication. This study identified five reliable terms and developed a Visual Risk Scale for patient discussions.

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Area of Science:

  • Medical Communication
  • Health Literacy
  • Risk Perception

Background:

  • Verbal probability expressions are widely used in healthcare to convey uncertainty.
  • Inconsistent interpretation of these terms can lead to miscommunication between patients and healthcare professionals.
  • Standardizing probability terms can improve the clarity and consistency of risk communication.

Approach:

  • A systematic review was conducted to evaluate the numeric meanings of common probability terms.
  • Studies assessing the interpretation of probability terms by laypersons and healthcare professionals were analyzed.
  • A Visual Risk Scale was constructed using terms with reliable numeric interpretations.

Key Points:

  • Five probability terms demonstrated consistent interpretation: 'Very Likely' (90%), 'Likely/Probable' (70%), 'Possible' (40%), 'Unlikely' (20%), and 'Very Unlikely' (10%).
  • Corresponding frequency terms were identified: Very Frequently, Frequently, Often, Infrequently, and Rarely.
  • Recommended presentation of numeric values is X-in-100 natural frequency statements, avoiding percentages or other formats.

Conclusions:

  • Verbal probability terms can be interpreted consistently when standardized.
  • Presenting probability terms with their numeric ranges and using natural frequency statements (X-in-100) enhances patient understanding.
  • The Visual Risk Scale can aid shared decision-making in clinical practice.