An evaluative technique for drought impact on variation in agricultural LULC using remote sensing and machine...

Drought events threaten freshwater reservoirs and agricultural productivity, particularly in semi-arid regions characterized by erratic rainfall. This study evaluates a novel technique for assessing the impact of drought on LULC variations in the context of climate change from 2018 to 2022. Various data sources were harnessed, encompassing Sentinel-2 satellite imagery for LULC classification, climate data from the CHIRPS and AgERA5 databases, geomorphological data from JAXA's ALOS satellite, and a drought indicator (Vegetation Health Index (VHI)) derived from MODIS data. Two classifier models, namely gradient tree boost (GTB) and random forest (RF), were trained and assessed for LULC classification, with performance evaluated by overall accuracy (OA) and kappa coefficient (K). Notably, the GTB model exhibited superior performance, with OA > 90% and a K > 0.9. Over the period from 2018 to 2022, Fez experienced LULC changes of 19.92% expansion in built-up areas, a 34.86% increase in bare land, a 17.86% reduction in water bodies, and a 37.30% decrease in agricultural land. Positive correlations of 0.81 and 0.89 were observed between changes in agricultural LULC, rainfall, and VHI. Furthermore, mild drought conditions were identified in the years 2020 and 2022. This study emphasizes the importance of AI and remote sensing techniques in assessing drought and environmental changes, with potential applications for improving existing drought monitoring systems.