Continued Rise in Health Burden from Ambient PM2.5 in India under SSP Scenarios Until 2100 despite Decreasing
Yiyi Wang1,2, Jianlin Hu1, Yangyang Wu2
1Jiangsu Collaborative Innovation Center of Atmospheric Environment and Equipment Technology, Jiangsu Key Laboratory of Atmospheric Environment Monitoring and Pollution Control, Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology, 219 Ningliu Road, Nanjing 210044, China.
Environmental Science & Technology
|May 6, 2024
Summary
Future air pollution in India will increase premature deaths, despite some PM2.5 reductions. Population growth and aging will offset benefits, highlighting the need for integrated strategies to improve air quality and public health.
Area of Science:
- Environmental Science
- Public Health
- Climate Change Modeling
Background:
- Forecasting air pollution and health impacts is vital for public health, environmental sustainability, and policy.
- Predicting these changes requires accurate data, advanced modeling, and analysis of multiple drivers.
Purpose of the Study:
- To project premature deaths from fine particulate matter (PM2.5) exposure in India.
- To analyze these projections across different socioeconomic and climate scenarios (SSPs) through 2100.
Main Methods:
- Utilized four Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) models.
- Calculated premature deaths due to ambient PM2.5 exposure under four SSPs from the 2020s to 2090s.
Main Results:
- PM2.5 concentrations are projected to decrease in most SSPs, with the lowest in SSP1-2.6, except for SSP3-7.0.
- Premature deaths are expected to rise from 1.01 million (2020s) to 4.12-5.44 million (2100s) annually across scenarios.
- Population aging and growth significantly mitigate the health benefits of reduced PM2.5 concentrations.
Conclusions:
- Proactive, integrated strategies are essential for India to enhance air quality.
- Addressing population dynamics alongside climate change is crucial for reducing vulnerability and improving public health outcomes.
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